Every autumn the National Retail Federation publishes its holiday forecast, and every autumn the headline number gets repeated everywhere. This year's number is out. Here's what it says, how last year's forecast actually turned out, and what any of it means for a small business that takes cards.
The 2026 Forecast
On October 15, NRF forecast that U.S. retail sales in November and December 2026 will grow 4.2% over 2025, to about $1.013 trillion. NRF counts the season as November 1 through December 31 and leaves out car dealers, gas stations and restaurants, so the figure is core retail rather than every dollar spent.
NRF also expects retailers to hire 325,000 to 375,000 seasonal workers, about the same as last year. It describes retailers as cautious because of gas prices, inflation, interest rates and consumer debt.
How Last Year's Forecast Turned Out
It's worth checking the forecast against last year before you plan around it:
- The forecast (November 2025): growth of 3.7% to 4.2%, or $1.01 trillion to $1.02 trillion, which would have been the first holiday season over $1 trillion.
- The early read (January 2026): NRF's Retail Monitor, built from card purchase data, showed holiday sales up 4.1%.
- NRF's own final figure (October 2026): up 3.1%, to $972 billion. That's below the forecast range, and short of $1 trillion.
So the season grew, but by less than forecast, and the figures moved as better data came in. The national number is a direction, not a plan. Your own last November and December are a better guide to what your business will do this year.
Where the Money Goes: More of It Online
The Census Bureau's latest quarterly estimate puts e-commerce at 17.1% of all U.S. retail sales in the second quarter of 2026, about one dollar in six. Online sales were up 12.2% on a year earlier, while total retail grew 6.7%. Online keeps growing faster than retail as a whole.
That matters for your processing costs. Online, phone and keyed-in sales are "card not present" payments, and the card networks generally charge more on them than on a chip or tap payment at the counter. Add the rewards cards that gift buyers prefer, and your effective rate can rise in December even though your pricing hasn't changed. Our 2026 rate benchmarks by industry show what a normal rate looks like for your type of business, so you can tell a seasonal change in card mix from a real price increase.
Small Business Saturday: November 28
Small Business Saturday falls on the Saturday after Thanksgiving, which is November 28 this year. American Express, which started it, publishes survey numbers each year:
- Shoppers reported spending an estimated $18 billion at small businesses on Small Business Saturday 2025. That comes from a consumer survey. It's what people said they spent, not receipts or card data.
- In Amex's 2025 Shop Small Impact Study, conducted in September and October, 86% of consumers surveyed said they were likely to shop small during the holiday season, in person or online.
Read those as a measure of intent, not a sales forecast. The useful point for a merchant is that one Saturday can bring a spike well above a normal day, and a spike is exactly what a processor's risk team notices. If you expect a big day, our holiday processing checklist covers raising your limit and testing your terminals before it arrives.
What to Do With the Numbers
- Forecast from your own history. Pull last November and December's sales and statements. That's your real baseline, not 4.2%.
- Know your effective rate now. Work it out from a normal month before the season, so you can judge December's statement against something.
- Watch your online share. If more of your holiday sales come through a website or over the phone, expect your costs per dollar to rise with it, and check that they rise by no more than they should.
- Tell your processor about a big day. A Small Business Saturday or Black Friday spike shouldn't be the first time your processor sees that volume.
Get a Statement Review Before the Peak
Send Clear Front Consulting a recent statement. We'll work out your effective rate, flag any fees that don't belong, and give you a baseline to measure the holidays against, so the extra sales don't come with extra fees you didn't need to pay.
It's free, there's no obligation, and if your rate is already fair, we'll say so.
Get a Pre-Holiday Statement Review
Sources: National Retail Federation, NRF Forecasts 2026 Holiday Sales Growth as Consumers Remain Resilient, October 15, 2026 (2026 forecast, 2025 final figure, seasonal hiring); NRF, NRF Expects Holiday Sales to Surpass $1 Trillion for the First Time in 2025, November 6, 2025; NRF, CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor’s December Data Shows Strong Holiday Season Spending, January 12, 2026; U.S. Census Bureau, Quarterly Retail E-Commerce Sales, 2nd Quarter 2026, August 18, 2026 (seasonally adjusted; Census will revise it on November 19, 2026); American Express, On Small Business Saturday, American Express Reaches Goal to Drive $100 Billion in Consumer-Reported Spending, December 17, 2025 (2025 Small Business Saturday Consumer Insights survey and 2025 Shop Small Impact Study; self-reported figures). Forecasts are estimates; your own sales history is the better guide.